Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc7a5…1f15 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$685 (+11%) realized +$685 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$572per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$615
7 days+$882
14 days+$646
30 days+$739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$691
sports 21% −$220
crypto 16% +$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.3% -18.8% 57% 43% +6.2%
≤30d 11 -2.5% -11.8% 64% 55% +1.1%
≤90d 11 -2.5% -11.8% 64% 55% +1.1%
all 11 -2.5% -11.8% 64% 55% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 55% +1.1%
10% -20.2% 45% -8.6%
15% -27.9% 27% -17.4%
20% -35.0% 18% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$186 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$685
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage20d
Avg bet$572
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,704 +$163 +10%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$76 -75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,010 +$503 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,052 +$224 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $988 +$268 +27%
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
ITF Los Angeles: Abigail Haile vs Victoria Mulville Jun 10 $472 −$468 -99%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $367 +$106 +29%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $241 +$125 +52%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $147 +$94 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,704 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,514 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,052 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,256 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $988 2d
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy SELL Ruth Roura Llaverias 22¢ $10 4d
ITF Mohammedia: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Elina Nepliy BUY Ruth Roura Llaverias 22¢ $10 4d
ITF Los Angeles: Abigail Haile vs Victoria Mulville BUY Victoria Mulville 70¢ $472 13d
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 100¢ $473 13d
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 77¢ $367 13d
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato SELL Federico Bondioli 100¢ $366 13d
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Federico Bondioli 65¢ $241 13d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $51 16d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $190 18d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $147 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records