Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7a6…318f crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$10
other 16% −$13
sports 1% −$4
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +17.5% +6.4% 53% 50% -11.3%
≤30d 37 +14.4% +3.5% 51% 49% -12.7%
≤90d 37 +14.4% +3.5% 51% 49% -12.7%
all 37 +14.4% +3.5% 51% 49% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 49% -12.7%
10% -6.4% 32% -21.1%
15% -15.5% 22% -28.7%
20% -23.8% 19% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 20¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? Yes 25¢ 29¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? Jun 28 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$12 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$8 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? Jun 28 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 28 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$57 +1074%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $9 $0 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $8 +$11 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Sharks 60¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.67 · official $16.57 (match) · 81 history records