Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

C7 0xc7ab…5b28 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$339 (+7%) realized +$1,239 · open −$900

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Drawdown86%max

Avg bet$232per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$49est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+2.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	19	+13.8%	+2.9%	53%	53%	-2.5%
all	19	+13.8%	+2.9%	53%	53%	-2.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.9%	53%	-2.5%
10%	-6.9%	53%	-11.8%
15%	-15.9%	47%	-20.3%
20%	-24.1%	47%	-28.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +18% → late +10% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$159 vs −$144 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.22 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,239

Unrealized−$900

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Est. fees paid−$49

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage49d

Avg bet$232

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown86%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	India	93¢	0¢	$900	$0	−$900 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	May 23	$32	−$20	-64%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal	May 23	$102	+$107	+105%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings	May 23	$102	−$100	-98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	May 20	$102	−$102	-100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants	May 20	$153	−$153	-100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	May 20	$152	−$152	-100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals	May 18	$153	+$265	+173%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru	May 17	$203	+$223	+110%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	May 16	$10	+$6	+60%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians	May 16	$102	+$121	+119%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?	May 16	$10	−$10	-100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings	May 16	$102	−$102	-100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals	May 14	$503	−$503	-100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R	May 14	$907	+$287	+32%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	May 13	$153	+$227	+149%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	May 10	$605	−$158	-26%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants	May 10	$152	+$138	+91%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans	May 09	$102	+$116	+114%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders	May 09	$102	+$103	+101%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India	BUY India	93¢	$902	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	SELL Up	6¢	$12	33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$26	33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$5	33d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings	BUY Lucknow Super Giants	35¢	$102	34d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal	BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad	48¢	$102	35d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants	BUY Lucknow Super Giants	43¢	$51	38d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants	BUY Lucknow Super Giants	43¢	$102	38d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	BUY Chennai Super Kings	45¢	$102	39d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals	BUY Delhi Capitals	25¢	$51	40d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals	BUY Delhi Capitals	46¢	$102	40d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru	BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru	48¢	$102	40d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru	BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru	46¢	$102	40d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	BUY Gujarat Titans	19¢	$51	41d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	BUY Gujarat Titans	58¢	$101	41d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings	BUY Chennai Super Kings	50¢	$102	42d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians	BUY Mumbai Indians	45¢	$102	43d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	43d
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY Pittsburgh Pirates	62¢	$10	43d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	79¢	$704	43d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	66¢	$101	44d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	64¢	$101	44d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	BUY Gujarat Titans	30¢	$51	45d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad	BUY Gujarat Titans	47¢	$102	45d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals	BUY Punjab Kings	78¢	$503	46d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore	65¢	$402	46d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore	80¢	$503	47d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	SELL Mumbai Indians	20¢	$44	47d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians	BUY Mumbai Indians	44¢	$102	47d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants	SELL Chennai Super Kings	97¢	$290	47d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 54 history records