Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc7af…1cf3 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate69%25W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$11
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$21
sports 37% +$32
crypto 10% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +22.6% +10.9% 64% 57% +3.0%
≤30d 36 +9.4% -1.0% 69% 47% -12.0%
≤90d 36 +9.4% -1.0% 69% 47% -12.0%
all 36 +9.4% -1.0% 69% 47% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 47% -12.0%
10% -10.5% 28% -20.4%
15% -19.1% 19% -28.1%
20% -27.0% 19% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses25 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage17d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$16 +214%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$26 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +63%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -77%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 $0 +10%
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer Jun 07 $3 $0 +20%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $3 +$1 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $11 −$6 -60%
Rainbow Six Siege: TYLOO vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 07 $8 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 $0 +10%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 $0 +12%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 $0 +7%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Armenia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $19 −$19 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $6 +$11 +172%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $7 −$5 -77%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 61¢ $2 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 62¢ $2 3d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Tristan Boyer 86¢ $3 3d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 97¢ $2 4d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY David Jorda Sanchis 90¢ $2 4d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Jesper de Jong 90¢ $4 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 7d
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski SELL Philip Henning 100¢ $1 8d
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer SELL Elias Ymer 100¢ $3 8d
Centurion 2: Philip Henning vs Alexander Donski BUY Philip Henning 78¢ $1 8d
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer BUY Elias Ymer 83¢ $3 8d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu SELL Yunchaokete Bu 100¢ $4 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 87¢ $2 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 88¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group SELL SPARTA 35¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.00 · official $16.00 (match) · 78 history records