Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7b0…7007 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%9W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$3
other 34% −$7
sports 14% −$2
economics 5% −$2
culture 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 75 -8.0% -16.8% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses9 / 66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage372d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $84 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $180 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $81 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $82 $0 +0%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 12 $82 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $83 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $254 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? Jan 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 05 $84 −$1 -2%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $90 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $87 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $1 $0 -33%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 11 $89 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $87 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $88 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 21 $1 $0 -29%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $93 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 06 $93 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $85 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $86 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $84 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $83 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 22d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $85 24d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 28d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 39d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 40d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 101d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 104d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 104d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 107d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 107d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 123d
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 129d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 133d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 137d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 139d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 140d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $83 142d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 143d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 144d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 145d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 146d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.99 · official $82.99 (match) · 417 history records