Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C7 0xc7b1…7e9a sports 104 markets active 4h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$230 (-1%) realized −$230 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%43W / 61L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$389est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,374
7 days−$2,271
14 days−$2,325
30 days−$5,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$3,107
other 30% +$2,021
crypto 1% +$86
tech 1% $0
world 0% +$84
politics 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -43.1% -48.5% 28% 28% -54.4%
≤30d 78 -15.2% -23.3% 35% 32% -33.5%
≤90d 104 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 39% -12.3%
all 104 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 39% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 39% -12.3%
10% -17.6% 38% -20.7%
15% -25.6% 38% -28.3%
20% -32.9% 36% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$210 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses43 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$389
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage35d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $203 +$125 +61%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 18 $750 −$750 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 18 $507 −$507 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 18 $437 −$437 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $318 −$318 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 18 $286 −$286 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $288 +$200 +69%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $164 +$124 +75%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $150 −$131 -87%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$74 -72%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$51 -50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $283 +$137 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $256 +$285 +111%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 −$62 -31%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $300 −$9 -3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $500 −$41 -8%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $97 −$4 -4%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 04 $208 +$32 +15%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $50 −$21 -41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $203 +$86 +43%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $855 −$855 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 02 $700 −$700 -100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 02 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $300 +$11 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $200 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $100 +$84 +84%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $301 −$301 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 28 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $300 +$353 +118%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $200 −$88 -44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $443 +$444 +100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $520 +$306 +59%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 27 $99 +$96 +98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 27 $500 +$430 +86%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $300 +$152 +51%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $400 −$110 -28%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $200 +$410 +205%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $510 −$320 -63%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $204 −$60 -30%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $305 −$209 -69%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $500 −$17 -3%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score May 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $203 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $288 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $164 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL FUT Esports $19 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 68¢ $150 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 25¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $102 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $420 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $283 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $204 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $42 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $58 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $201 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 66¢ $542 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $256 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $234 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL BetBoom Team 37¢ $140 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $102 5d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 65¢ $35 5d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 65¢ $65 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $203 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 5d
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 44¢ $750 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $291 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $459 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 48¢ $318 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $93 13d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 50¢ $189 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records