Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc7b8…ce0a world 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$164 (+13%) realized +$189 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$151
other 33% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +49.6% +35.3% 50% 50% +18.7%
≤90d 2 +49.6% +35.3% 50% 50% +18.7%
all 2 +49.6% +35.3% 50% 50% +18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.3% 50% +18.7%
10% +22.4% 50% +7.4%
15% +10.6% 50% -3.0%
20% -0.3% 50% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$273 vs −$83 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized+$189
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage60d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $204 $218 +$14 (+7%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 47¢ 38¢ $219 $180 −$39 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $383 −$83 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $226 +$273 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $100 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $102 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $119 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $106 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $201 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 50¢ $161 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 50¢ $54 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $12 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $101 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $100 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $212 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $11 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $60 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $100 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $101 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $65 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 64¢ $46 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 44¢ $20 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 55¢ $100 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 83¢ $240 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 39¢ $226 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.19 · official $398.19 (match) · 21 history records