Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc7b8…2c1f tech 346 markets active 2d ago coverage 127d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable tech specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$37,520 (+42%) realized +$42,878 · open −$5,358
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%222W / 141L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$2,437
tech 36% +$846
finance 23% −$4,023
sports 3% +$153
crypto 1% +$1,640
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +5.4% -4.6% 26% 21% -51.3%
≤30d 39 +5.4% -4.6% 26% 21% -51.3%
≤90d 40 +2.8% -7.0% 25% 20% -56.3%
all 363 +21.2% +9.7% 61% 58% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 58% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -0.8% 45% -20.5%
15% -10.4% 30% -28.2%
20% -19.2% 23% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$197 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$5,363
Realized+$42,878
Unrealized−$5,358
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses222 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Open positions41
Markets (closed)363 / 346
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$258
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $729 $712 −$17 (-2%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $637 $686 +$49 (+8%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? No 72¢ 74¢ $567 $584 +$18 (+3%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.40 (High) in 2026? No 88¢ 93¢ $288 $305 +$17 (+6%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.24 (High) in 2026? Yes 68¢ 34¢ $545 $271 −$274 (-50%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $255 $264 +$9 (+3%)
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $366 $249 −$117 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 12¢ 80¢ $35 $231 +$197 (+567%)
Will USD/JPY hit 140 (Low) in 2026? No 84¢ 76¢ $250 $226 −$24 (-10%)
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? No 40¢ 52¢ $137 $179 +$41 (+30%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.14 (Low) in 2026? No 47¢ 32¢ $235 $161 −$74 (-32%)
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 6¢ $984 $149 −$835 (-85%)
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 4¢ $947 $128 −$819 (-86%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026? Yes 86¢ 61¢ $165 $117 −$49 (-29%)
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? No 7¢ 86¢ $9 $116 +$107 (+1129%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.26 (High) in 2026? Yes 49¢ 30¢ $179 $112 −$67 (-37%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $522 $107 −$415 (-79%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? No 32¢ 12¢ $291 $106 −$185 (-64%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 6¢ $511 $89 −$422 (-83%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? No 43¢ 27¢ $135 $85 −$50 (-37%)
Will USD/JPY hit 130 (Low) in 2026? No 93¢ 84¢ $73 $66 −$7 (-10%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.22 (High) in 2026? Yes 79¢ 50¢ $105 $66 −$39 (-37%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 3¢ $585 $64 −$521 (-89%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 3¢ $454 $39 −$415 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 15 $978 −$1,364 -139%
Meta (META) Up or Down on January 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 2? Jun 15 $26 +$8 +31%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January? Jun 15 $432 +$646 +150%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 15 $556 −$632 -114%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $74 −$57 -76%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 3? Jun 15 $488 −$548 -112%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on February 4? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solana dip to $100 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on February 2? Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on February 2? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,040 (HIGH) in January? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $335 on January 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in January? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January? Jun 15 $2 +$74 +3818%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on January 29? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on February 2? Jun 15 $182 −$209 -115%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $70 −$65 -93%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on February 3? Jun 15 $179 −$179 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 on February 3? Jun 15 $838 −$838 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 on January 29? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on February 3? Jun 15 $78 −$225 -290%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on January 30? Jun 15 $79 −$52 -65%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 on January 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $255 on January 30? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on January 30? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 15 $83 +$149 +179%
Will Chainlink dip to $8 in February? Jun 15 $736 −$996 -135%
Meta (META) Up or Down on February 2? Jun 15 $10 +$55 +556%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will BNB dip to $700 in February? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $700 on February 3? Jun 15 $92 −$236 -258%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $180 +$155 +86%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET Jun 12 $155 +$24 +16%
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 7AM ET Jun 12 $222 +$23 +10%
Will USD/JPY hit 160 (High) in 2026? Jun 12 $259 +$42 +16%
HYPE Up or Down on March 17? Mar 16 $3 −$3 -98%
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 6PM ET Mar 14 $4 $0 +8%
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 10AM ET Mar 14 $4 +$1 +17%
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 12PM ET Mar 14 $104 −$4 -4%
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 11AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 9AM ET Mar 13 $1 +$10 +809%
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 6AM ET Mar 13 $8 +$2 +20%
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 7AM ET Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $180 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 31¢ $27 66d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 31¢ $9 74d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 31¢ $8 74d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 31¢ $9 74d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 31¢ $0 75d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 31¢ $2 75d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 31¢ $0 75d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $52 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $48 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $47 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 7AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $19 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $13 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $55 82d
HYPE Up or Down - March 25, 7AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $121 82d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 31¢ $2 87d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No 19¢ $115 90d
HYPE Up or Down on March 17? BUY Down 53¢ $3 90d
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 6PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 93d
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 5PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 93d
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 94d
HYPE Up or Down - March 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $49 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,362.74 · official $5,362.73 (match) · 3500 history records