Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7bb…2753 sports 781 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,262 (-12%) realized −$4,277 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%379W / 399L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$190est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$986
14 days+$16
30 days−$1,433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,787
other 34% −$2,601
world 0% +$16
finance 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +11.2% +0.6% 57% 57% +25.6%
≤30d 112 -10.6% -19.1% 48% 47% -22.5%
≤90d 569 -22.6% -30.0% 41% 40% -29.7%
all 778 -4.3% -13.5% 49% 49% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 49% -21.0%
10% -21.7% 49% -28.5%
15% -29.3% 48% -35.5%
20% -36.2% 44% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$45 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized−$4,277
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses379 / 399
Est. fees paid−$190
Open positions3
Markets (closed)778 / 781
History coverage149d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 57¢ $345 $342 −$3 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Under 51¢ 66¢ $65 $83 +$18 (+28%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $66 +$61 +93%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova Jun 23 $66 +$36 +55%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 22 $66 +$69 +105%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $66 −$65 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo Jun 22 $66 +$67 +101%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 Jun 21 $61 +$43 +70%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $66 +$41 +62%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $61 +$115 +188%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $66 −$65 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 +$13 +62%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 20 $61 +$67 +109%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $828 +$1,336 +161%
Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$32 +131%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $427 −$426 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $65 −$64 -98%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$60 +60%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $61 +$36 +60%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $61 +$43 +70%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $446 −$445 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $61 +$46 +76%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $61 +$33 +55%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5) Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $24 +$10 +40%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $139 +$34 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $66 −$65 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -99%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $403 −$399 -99%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 11 $60 +$48 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $60 +$30 +49%
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alexis Galarneau: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $43 +$56 +131%
Set Handicap: Brooksby (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 09 $38 +$22 +58%
Nick Kyrgios vs. Corentin Moutet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $14 −$14 -98%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5) Jun 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 08 $61 +$43 +70%
Paul vs. Perricard: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $4 −$1 -22%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $61 +$23 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $61 −$60 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $61 −$17 -28%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $41 +$30 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 51¢ $66 23m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $349 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $66 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 51¢ $66 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Darja Semenistaja 64¢ $66 14h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Jaume Munar 44¢ $66 31h
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 48¢ $66 31h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo BUY Pol Martin Tiffon 49¢ $66 36h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 58¢ $61 2d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 64¢ $66 2d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 61¢ $66 2d
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 34¢ $61 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $64 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $65 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $21 3d
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 47¢ $61 3d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 56¢ $61 3d
Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $22 4d
Frances Tiafoe vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 42¢ $2 4d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 4d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $65 5d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 5d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.13 · official $490.14 (match) · 1651 history records