Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C7 0xc7bc…5968 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized +$14 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$17
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$49
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.2% -16.9% 43% 21% -11.3%
≤30d 45 -3.9% -13.0% 36% 18% -12.4%
≤90d 45 -3.9% -13.0% 36% 18% -12.4%
all 45 -3.9% -13.0% 36% 18% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 18% -12.4%
10% -21.3% 13% -20.8%
15% -28.9% 11% -28.4%
20% -35.9% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage15d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 59¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 4¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-92%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $65 −$3 -4%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $60 −$1 -2%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $19 −$3 -18%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 24 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -53%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $25 −$3 -13%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $15 −$2 -15%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -51%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 17¢ $2 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 25¢ $8 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 31¢ $31 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 46¢ $15 11h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $20 11h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 55¢ $10 11h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 95¢ $19 23h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 99¢ $20 23h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 86¢ $19 23h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 92¢ $30 23h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 89¢ $20 23h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 93¢ $30 23h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 83¢ $19 24h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 88¢ $29 24h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 90¢ $30 24h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 85¢ $20 24h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 19¢ $4 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 94¢ $11 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 83¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 83¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 80¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.33 · official $32.33 (match) · 233 history records