Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7bd…f8eb crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%64W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$80
other 1% −$5
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 51% -11.9%
≤30d 103 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 51% -11.9%
≤90d 103 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 51% -11.9%
all 103 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 51% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 51% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 39% -20.3%
15% -28.7% 28% -28.0%
20% -35.7% 17% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses64 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$38 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $150 −$23 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$28 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $150 −$18 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$53 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $255 −$25 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $100 −$73 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $107 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $100 −$86 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $170 −$12 -7%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$59 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$67 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $50 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$19 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$7 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$7 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $44 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $50 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $19 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $50 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $55 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $153 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records