Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7bf…394d weather 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$447 (-6%) realized −$521 · open −$1,724
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 58L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$943now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$839
7 days−$912
14 days−$966
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$2,088
politics 10% −$77
sports 4% −$33
weather 2% −$21
other 0% −$25
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.4% -34.3% 0% 0% -45.6%
≤30d 92 -11.1% -19.5% 37% 35% -19.7%
≤90d 92 -11.1% -19.5% 37% 35% -19.7%
all 92 -11.1% -19.5% 37% 35% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 35% -19.7%
10% -27.2% 30% -27.4%
15% -34.3% 27% -34.4%
20% -40.7% 23% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$943
Realized−$521
Unrealized−$1,724
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)92 / 101
History coverage24d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 64¢ 23¢ $2,650 $934 −$1,716 (-65%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season KRÜ Blaze 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 26? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage Brute 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $50 −$6 -13%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 14 $62 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $800 −$562 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $675 −$269 -40%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $699 −$72 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $10 +$9 +84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 +$8 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$10 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$16 +77%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $93 −$5 -5%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5) Jun 06 $89 −$10 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $540 +$3 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $9 +$5 +58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$7 +131%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $41 +$41 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $590 +$267 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $3 −$1 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $575 +$129 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +101%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 27? May 26 $1 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 27? May 26 $1 $0 -31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? May 26 $3 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 25 $1 +$3 +262%
Valorant: REBORN vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 25 $1 +$2 +197%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Tricksters (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Gro May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $6 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $110 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $44 1h
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 30¢ $59 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $230 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 19¢ $238 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $410 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $406 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $660 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $617 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $309 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 53¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 8d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 47¢ $6 8d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Los Angeles Sparks 45¢ $89 8d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5) SELL Dallas Wings 40¢ $79 8d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5) BUY Dallas Wings 44¢ $89 8d
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 46¢ $93 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $381 8d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 48¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $942.74 · official $942.74 (match) · 202 history records