Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

C7 0xc7c3…2f0f other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 701d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$402 (-64%) realized −$395 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip

Net edge-76%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate14%1W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-76.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	7	-73.5%	-76.1%	14%	14%	-92.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-76.1%	14%	-92.4%
10%	-78.4%	14%	-93.1%
15%	-80.4%	14%	-93.8%
20%	-82.4%	14%	-94.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -74% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$70 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

701d coverage

Net worth$172

Realized−$395

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)14%

Wins / losses1 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage701d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$180	$172	−$7 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026?	Jul 29	$210	−$210	-100%
Falcons vs. Chiefs	Sep 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Liverpool beat Manchester United?	Sep 11	$20	+$17	+85%
Will Crystal Palace beat Chelsea?	Sep 01	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Trump say "Solana" during his Bitcoin Conference speech?	Sep 01	$69	−$69	-100%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?	Sep 01	$25	−$25	-100%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025?	Aug 31	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$185	1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026?	BUY Yes	3¢	$210	333d
Falcons vs. Chiefs	BUY Falcons	1¢	$10	643d
Will Crystal Palace beat Chelsea?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	665d
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025?	BUY Yes	1¢	$100	665d
Will Liverpool beat Manchester United?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	665d
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?	BUY No	2¢	$25	695d
Will Trump say "Solana" during his Bitcoin Conference speech?	BUY Yes	12¢	$61	700d
Will Trump say "Solana" during his Bitcoin Conference speech?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	700d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.07 · official $172.07 (match) · 14 history records