Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C7 0xc7c7…44b7 crypto 329 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$10 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%168W / 160L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$697est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$4,012
crypto 44% +$168
other 5% +$1,306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +14.1% +3.3% 53% 53% +0.7%
≤30d 273 +0.2% -9.4% 51% 49% -15.6%
≤90d 328 -1.6% -10.9% 51% 49% -11.9%
all 328 -1.6% -10.9% 51% 49% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 49% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 45% -20.3%
15% -27.2% 42% -28.0%
20% -34.4% 38% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$211 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses168 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$697
Open positions1
Markets (closed)328 / 329
History coverage36d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$98 +94%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,523 +$1,598 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$55 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $131 +$224 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $186 −$181 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$325 +308%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $606 +$161 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$119 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$119 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$46 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$27 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$246 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$91 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $268 +$406 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$209 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$27 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,133 −$2,100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $209 −$200 -96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,648 −$800 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $261 −$248 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $209 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $209 +$357 +171%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $508 +$502 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$98 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$65 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$69 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $198 −$189 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $106 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $131 −$127 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $209 +$243 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $210 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$68 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$83 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $314 +$423 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$76 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$98 +47%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $815 +$1,235 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $209 +$118 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $236 +$204 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,122 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $137 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $82 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,523 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $355 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $431 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $768 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $223 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $606 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $223 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $121 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $75 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $77 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $99 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.01 · 928 history records