Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7c8…297b crypto 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$832 (-5%) realized −$832 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%94W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,117
other 0% −$6
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 33% -10.7%
≤30d 23 +6.5% -3.6% 61% 43% -4.7%
≤90d 146 -13.4% -21.7% 47% 38% -16.4%
all 184 +2.0% -7.7% 51% 41% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 41% -15.0%
10% -16.5% 32% -23.1%
15% -24.6% 24% -30.6%
20% -32.0% 20% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$46 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$832
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses94 / 90
Open positions2
Markets (closed)184 / 186
History coverage167d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 51¢ 37¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $203 −$46 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$80 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $106 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$55 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $91 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $285 −$57 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$94 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $164 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$60 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$41 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $103 −$41 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $62 +$44 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 01 $52 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 01 $81 −$27 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 01 $130 −$93 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 01 $50 −$44 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 01 $30 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 01 $50 −$32 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 01 $128 −$71 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 01 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 01 $100 −$56 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 01 $100 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 01 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 01 $100 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 01 $130 +$33 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 01 $120 +$36 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 01 $94 +$54 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 01 $40 −$10 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 01 $30 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 01 $55 −$45 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 01 $50 −$44 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 01 $280 −$197 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 01 $100 −$45 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 01 $50 −$46 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 01 $100 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 01 $130 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 01 $200 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 01 $20 −$5 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $89 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $32 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $182 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.53 · official $6.53 (match) · 524 history records