Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C7 0xc7d1…724a other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$179 (+22%) realized +$174 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$50
14 days+$232
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$182
sports 39% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -28.3% -35.1% 35% 35% +2.9%
≤30d 32 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 44% +21.4%
≤90d 32 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 44% +21.4%
all 32 -18.3% -26.1% 44% 44% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 44% +21.4%
10% -33.2% 41% +9.8%
15% -39.6% 41% -0.8%
20% -45.6% 34% -10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$6 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage14d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 61¢ 58¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $32 +$23 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $45 −$40 -90%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $35 +$25 +70%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $22 +$51 +226%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -6%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $56 +$37 +66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$20 +66%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $46 +$18 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $30 +$23 +77%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $10 +$11 +110%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$73 +73%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 11h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $3 11h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $30 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $4 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $112 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $1 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $45 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 33¢ $11 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 27¢ $15 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes $1 4d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Germany end BUY $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.63 · official $77.63 (match) · 92 history records