Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C7 0xc7d1…c0f2 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,565 (+10%) realized +$2,751 · open +$814
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate80%49W / 12L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$6,682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$289
7 days−$1,192
14 days−$408
30 days+$1,544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$3,893
sports 17% −$697
crypto 4% +$282
world 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.3% -18.8% 78% 67% -35.0%
≤30d 34 +15.6% +4.6% 88% 82% -3.5%
≤90d 37 +15.9% +4.9% 89% 84% -1.5%
all 61 +12.1% +1.5% 80% 75% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 75% -1.3%
10% -8.3% 44% -10.8%
15% -17.1% 28% -19.4%
20% -25.2% 18% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$870) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$262 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$6,682
Realized+$2,751
Unrealized+$814
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses49 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions9
Markets (closed)61 / 70
History coverage127d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 96¢ $3,010 $3,342 +$332 (+11%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 81¢ $1,000 $1,181 +$181 (+18%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 88¢ $524 $573 +$49 (+9%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 96¢ $352 $526 +$174 (+49%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $350 $352 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 94¢ $201 $258 +$57 (+28%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $160 $175 +$15 (+10%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $261 +$44 +17%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,204 +$147 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $135 +$16 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $111 +$24 +21%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $98 +$14 +14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $455 +$44 +10%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $404 +$87 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,509 −$1,500 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,522 +$188 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,263 +$244 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $870 +$130 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $903 +$222 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $801 +$81 +10%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $400 +$99 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $252 −$250 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,261 +$151 +12%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,792 +$422 +24%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 May 31 $168 +$62 +37%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $140 +$114 +82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $50 +$123 +247%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 May 30 $85 +$17 +20%
Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 4.5 May 30 $258 +$63 +24%
Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 1.5 May 29 $243 +$57 +23%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $855 +$193 +23%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $603 +$102 +17%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $895 +$332 +37%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $991 +$188 +19%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $221 +$44 +20%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,100 +$339 +31%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $140 +$60 +43%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,999 +$314 +16%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $1,010 +$441 +44%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $803 +$126 +16%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $1,697 +$454 +27%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluig May 04 $2,212 +$348 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 05 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $50 +$41 +82%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $60 −$39 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 04 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2PM ET Mar 04 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 02 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $80 +$56 +70%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $40 +$50 +125%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $130 +$45 +35%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $15 +$22 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $251 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $98 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $306 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $261 3h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $161 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $135 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $111 30h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 98¢ $22 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 98¢ $5 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 98¢ $5 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 97¢ $17 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 97¢ $14 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 96¢ $21 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 93¢ $22 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 93¢ $5 32h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 84¢ $98 34h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $352 36h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $277 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $499 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $243 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $101 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $101 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $2 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $10 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $25 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $9 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $102 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,681.70 · official $6,681.84 (match) · 350 history records