Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7d4…b6ad world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%39W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$4
politics 20% $0
other 19% −$15
sports 12% +$7
economics 5% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 33 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 81 -0.7% -10.2% 41% 6% -9.4%
all 91 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses39 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage522d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $69 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $83 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $29 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $92 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $87 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $84 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $80 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +25%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $41 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $43 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $43 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $22 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $47 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $47 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $33 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 47h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $48 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $13 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $31 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $10 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $14 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $40 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.00 (match) · 360 history records