Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C7 0xc7df…9e41 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+5%) realized +$97 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$185
sports 21% −$34
politics 2% −$21
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 46% +3.2%
≤30d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 46% +3.2%
≤90d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 46% +3.2%
all 28 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 46% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 46% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 39% -6.7%
15% -26.3% 36% -15.7%
20% -33.5% 29% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage2d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 36¢ $50 $21 −$29 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -28%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $374 +$62 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$21 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $12 +$7 +57%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Algeria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$8 +41%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$61 +120%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $102 −$11 -10%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $120 +$16 +13%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 22 $8 $0 -4%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$1 -9%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $36 −$12 -32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $51 +$47 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $12 +$37 +307%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 +$13 +65%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $11 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $26 −$21 -82%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $51 +$44 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $19 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $54 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 68¢ $213 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $12 9h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 9h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 18h
Algeria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $112 18h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 25¢ $87 20h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $20 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $20 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $10 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 21h
France to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $136 21h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 23h
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.61 · official $221.61 (match) · 61 history records