Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:29:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7df…7f82 crypto 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,096 (-4%) realized −$904 · open −$192
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%88W / 86L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$68
14 days+$365
30 days+$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$1,031
other 26% −$272
sports 16% −$197
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +13.6% +2.8% 43% 43% -6.4%
≤30d 53 +17.0% +5.9% 51% 49% +2.5%
≤90d 119 -8.8% -17.4% 49% 43% -20.6%
all 174 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 47% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 47% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 41% -22.7%
15% -29.8% 32% -30.1%
20% -36.6% 22% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$74 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$904
Unrealized−$192
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses88 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)174 / 178
History coverage99d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 16¢ $200 $57 −$143 (-71%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-15%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Türkiye 25¢ $50 $5 −$45 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $46 −$36 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $96 −$76 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $109 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $123 +$52 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$12 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 −$50 -83%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $25 +$12 +49%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $0 $0 -67%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$14 -70%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$52 +102%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $65 +$30 +47%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $33 −$22 -69%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $25 +$17 +67%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$30 +152%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $17 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $44 +$21 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $63 +$118 +188%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 23 $31 −$9 -30%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 23 $111 +$89 +79%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$42 +52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $88 −$23 -26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$30 +60%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $16 +$84 +510%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$16 -63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $48 +$52 +109%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $156 +$44 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $116 +$75 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$7 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $80 +$40 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$59 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 25¢ $51 47m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 47m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 10¢ $0 57m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 10¢ $2 57m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 10¢ $2 58m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 10¢ $2 58m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 10¢ $1 58m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 10¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $96 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 45¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.84 · official $87.84 (match) · 2297 history records