Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C7 0xc7e0…3a3c crypto 780 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$271 (+20%) realized +$269 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%218W / 547L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$320
7 days+$288
14 days+$233
30 days+$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$279
other 13% −$27
sports 4% +$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 -11.8% -20.2% 25% 25% +54.1%
≤30d 627 -1.9% -11.3% 30% 30% +14.8%
≤90d 765 -5.1% -14.1% 28% 28% +8.5%
all 765 -5.1% -14.1% 28% 28% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 28% +8.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 28% -1.8%
15% -29.8% 28% -11.3%
20% -36.7% 28% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$269
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses218 / 547
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)765 / 780
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 765 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $46 +$185 +405%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$177 +656%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$17 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$8 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$13 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$8 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -95%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$8 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$13 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$12 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +218%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $46 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 28h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 31h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 45h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.02 · official $22.09 (match) · 1098 history records