Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

C7 0xc7e2…880b sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$208 (-10%) realized −$204 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate32%6W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$104per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$20est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$180

7 days+$199

14 days−$131

30 days−$252

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)-27.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-4.2%	-13.3%	43%	43%	+5.6%
≤30d	19	-19.5%	-27.2%	32%	32%	-21.0%
≤90d	19	-19.5%	-27.2%	32%	32%	-21.0%
all	19	-19.5%	-27.2%	32%	32%	-21.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.2%	32%	-21.0%
10%	-34.2%	26%	-28.6%
15%	-40.5%	26%	-35.5%
20%	-46.3%	26%	-41.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late -16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$81 vs −$57 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$176

Realized−$204

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)32%

Wins / losses6 / 13

Est. fees paid−$20

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage21d

Avg bet$104

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$150	$150	−$0 (-0%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	Yes	65¢	56¢	$30	$26	−$4 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$20	−$20	-100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$20	+$38	+188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	−$100	-99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$53	+52%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 20	$101	−$70	-69%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	−$4	-4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	−$26	-52%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$212	+$181	+86%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 20	$10	−$6	-62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	+$77	+76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 19	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$84	+$88	+105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$231	+$49	+21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$51	−$48	-94%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$518	−$263	-51%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$75	−$19	-26%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 04	$50	−$21	-42%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 02	$101	−$100	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$51	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$82	21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	21h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$20	22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	53¢	$51	22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	SELL Sweden	20¢	$21	34h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	SELL Sweden	26¢	$10	34h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	34¢	$20	44h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	68¢	$101	44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	57¢	$97	44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	24¢	$24	47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	56¢	$152	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$4	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	47¢	$60	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$84	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$231	5d
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	2¢	$3	10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	31¢	$51	10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	17¢	$66	11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	49¢	$189	11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	41¢	$56	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.64 · official $175.64 (match) · 46 history records