Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:50:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7e3…1987 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$318 (+6%) realized +$323 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%47W / 55L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$233
14 days+$261
30 days+$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$231
sports 24% −$13
crypto 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -4.1% -13.2% 49% 47% -4.3%
≤30d 102 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 45% -4.6%
≤90d 102 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 45% -4.6%
all 102 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 45% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 45% -4.6%
10% -21.2% 38% -13.7%
15% -28.8% 34% -22.0%
20% -35.8% 25% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$30 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$323
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses47 / 55
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)102 / 108
History coverage11d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-20%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $18 $20 +$3 (+14%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $18 +$35 +188%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$2 +12%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $17 +$15 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $15 −$6 -36%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $29 +$45 +158%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $37 +$19 +50%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $16 +$39 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $32 +$19 +60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $61 +$85 +139%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $27 −$25 -92%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$7 -16%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $61 +$152 +248%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $75 −$74 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $88 +$16 +19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $141 −$139 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $19 −$18 -95%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 −$12 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $76 +$56 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $74 −$62 -84%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $26 −$23 -89%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $131 +$24 +18%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $74 +$29 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $46 +$61 +134%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $56 −$44 -79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $28 −$23 -84%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $197 +$108 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $222 +$101 +46%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $176 +$32 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $50 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $18 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 42¢ $33 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 9h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 9h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $17 9h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 9h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 16h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 21h
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 24h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 24h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 29h
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 45h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $29 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $22 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 46h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 46h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 46h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 46h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.50 · official $105.50 (match) · 195 history records