Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7e8…462e world 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%30W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1
other 20% $0
sports 16% −$1
politics 14% $0
economics 8% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 +0.8% -8.8% 31% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 71 +28.2% +16.0% 37% 3% -9.5%
all 78 +24.3% +12.5% 38% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 3% -9.7%
10% +1.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -8.1% 3% -26.3%
20% -17.1% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses30 / 48
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage492d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 59¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $75 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $113 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $51 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $75 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $134 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $90 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $43 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $28 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $36 +$3 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $73 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $77 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $3 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 317 history records