Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
C7 0xc7e8…b560 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$2,193 (+21%) realized +$2,202 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$548
7 days+$2,239
14 days+$1,907
30 days+$1,907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$3,311
sports 39% +$5,209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+61.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +100.7% +81.6% 31% 31% +13.0%
≤30d 40 +78.4% +61.4% 30% 30% +7.9%
≤90d 40 +78.4% +61.4% 30% 30% +7.9%
all 40 +78.4% +61.4% 30% 30% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.4% 30% +7.9%
10% +46.0% 25% -2.4%
15% +31.9% 25% -11.8%
20% +19.0% 25% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +166% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$647 vs −$209 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$2,202
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage8d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $207 −$200 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,029 +$324 +16%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $414 −$359 -87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $414 +$1,586 +384%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $207 −$200 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $208 −$200 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $104 +$1,146 +1105%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $207 −$200 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $206 +$533 +258%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $104 +$1,007 +971%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$254 +246%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$351 +340%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$254 +246%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 +$281 +273%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $93 +$1,707 +1826%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$254 +246%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $507 +$68 +13%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $103 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $55 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $311 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $2,029 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 8h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 8h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 8h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $103 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 28h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 29h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $207 29h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $104 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $508 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 31h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $310 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $509 32h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $103 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,012 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.36 · official $391.39 (match) · 70 history records