Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

C7 0xc7eb…6f38 crypto 23 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$76 (-40%) realized −$76 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%7W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day6.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)+26.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+39.3%	+26.0%	30%	30%	-51.1%
≤30d	23	+39.3%	+26.0%	30%	30%	-51.1%
≤90d	23	+39.3%	+26.0%	30%	30%	-51.1%
all	23	+39.3%	+26.0%	30%	30%	-51.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.0%	30%	-51.1%
10%	+14.0%	30%	-55.8%
15%	+3.0%	30%	-60.1%
20%	-7.1%	22%	-64.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -44% → late +116% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.4 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$76

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses7 / 16

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage5d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day6.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$5	+$5	+97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$6	+$3	+50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+44%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 14	$11	−$10	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 14	$6	−$6	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 14	$1	+$20	+2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$15	+$9	+57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$30	−$15	-50%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$5	+$8	+152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$5	+$5	+105%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	50¢	$5	44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$6	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$5	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	69¢	$5	3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Curaçao	50¢	$20	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$11	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$1	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$5	4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	56¢	$5	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$24	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	56¢	$15	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$5	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	BUY Scotland	40¢	$2	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records