Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C7 0xc7ee…dbbe world 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$28 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$24
other 37% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.9% +18.4% 100% 50% +18.5%
≤30d 3 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 67% +15.9%
≤90d 3 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 67% +15.9%
all 3 +24.1% +12.3% 100% 67% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.3% 67% +15.9%
10% +1.6% 33% +4.8%
15% -8.3% 33% -5.3%
20% -17.3% 33% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage10d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $49 $66 +$17 (+36%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 7¢ $52 $6 −$46 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 24 $48 +$25 +52%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $16 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.06 · official $126.06 (match) · 10 history records