Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C7 0xc7f2…ff17 crypto 199 markets active 6d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+3%) realized +$32 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%126W / 69L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$26
other 4% −$4
economics 1% +$5
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +12.5% +1.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 195 +2.6% -7.2% 65% 65% -7.2%
≤90d 195 +2.6% -7.2% 65% 65% -7.2%
all 195 +2.6% -7.2% 65% 65% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 65% -7.2%
10% -16.0% 65% -16.1%
15% -24.2% 65% -24.2%
20% -31.6% 52% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses126 / 69
Open positions4
Markets (closed)195 / 199
History coverage17d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 11 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 29 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 6d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $12 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 17d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.95 · official $24.96 (match) · 397 history records