Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7f3…5697 sports 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%17W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$6
other 20% −$3
politics 18% −$2
world 11% −$2
crypto 8% −$2
economics 8% −$2
culture 7% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 176 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses17 / 159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)176 / 176
History coverage153d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 176 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $393 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $293 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $88 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $111 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $71 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 22 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $131 −$3 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 21 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $34 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 13d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $23 13d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $26 25d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $26 25d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $22 32d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $22 33d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $26 114d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $2 114d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $2 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $5 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $5 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $5 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $5 114d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $4 114d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $4 114d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $2 114d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $2 114d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $26 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $24 114d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $26 114d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $34 114d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $34 114d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $27 114d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $27 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $28 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 114d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $27 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 993 history records