Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7f5…df4f other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1 (+8%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$3
sports 31% +$2
tech 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 38% 38% -15.4%
≤30d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 38% 38% -15.4%
≤90d 8 -2.6% -11.9% 38% 38% -15.4%
all 8 -2.6% -11.9% 38% 38% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 38% -15.4%
10% -20.3% 38% -23.5%
15% -28.0% 38% -30.9%
20% -35.1% 38% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -41%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 26m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 26m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 16h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.90 · official $3.90 (match) · 19 history records