Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C7 0xc7fd…3294 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$1
other 26% −$3
politics 5% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% −$6
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -8.9% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 37% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 37% 0% -9.6%
all 50 -2.0% -11.3% 24% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage281d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $56 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $90 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $122 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $38 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $54 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $55 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $142 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $6 +$3 +43%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $12 −$6 -49%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Nov 19 $25 $0 +1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $55 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $14 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $2 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 29h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $57 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $48 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $18 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.60 · official $53.60 (match) · 220 history records