Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C7 0xc7fd…b976 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$27
sports 5% −$5
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -47.2% -52.2% 27% 27% +10.5%
≤30d 11 -47.2% -52.2% 27% 27% +10.5%
≤90d 11 -47.2% -52.2% 27% 27% +10.5%
all 11 -47.2% -52.2% 27% 27% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.2% 27% +10.5%
10% -56.8% 27% -0.1%
15% -61.0% 27% -9.7%
20% -64.8% 9% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 +$21 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +50%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $12 +$13 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 2m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records