Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C8 0xc803…57b9 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$266 (+7%) realized +$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$566per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$205
other 22% +$196
sports 13% −$153
politics 10% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -31.7% -38.2% 60% 40% -7.0%
≤30d 5 -31.7% -38.2% 60% 40% -7.0%
≤90d 7 -11.0% -19.4% 71% 57% -2.5%
all 7 -11.0% -19.4% 71% 57% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 57% -2.5%
10% -27.2% 29% -11.8%
15% -34.2% 14% -20.3%
20% -40.6% 14% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$100 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage87d
Avg bet$566
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $301 +$48 +16%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $855 +$196 +23%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,991 +$51 +3%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 17 $385 +$60 +16%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $231 +$153 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $301 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,051 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,042 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,991 67d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 87¢ $385 74d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $385 74d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $231 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records