Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc807…c12b
sports · 87 markets active 17h ago
0.0score
−$3,256,356 -99%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,261,802 · open +$5,447
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$58,538
Realized−$3,261,802
Unrealized+$5,447
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses37 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)19%
Est. fees paid−$47,722
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 87
Avg bet$37,619
Trades / day138.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,603,190
7 days−$2,646,443
14 days−$2,539,560
30 days−$3,261,802
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 60¢ $39,644 $44,506 +$4,862 (+12%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 46¢ 48¢ $13,448 $14,032 +$585 (+4%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Athletics 58¢ 0¢ $43,645 $0 −$43,645 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Texas Rangers 58¢ 0¢ $2,064 $0 −$2,064 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $88,349 $0 −$88,349 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Spurs 51¢ 0¢ $66,300 $0 −$66,300 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Thunder 51¢ 0¢ $29,362 $0 −$29,362 (-100%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 44¢ 0¢ $924 $0 −$924 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $15,898 $0 −$15,898 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $88,562 $0 −$88,562 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens Canadiens 57¢ 0¢ $42,299 $0 −$42,299 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ 0¢ $8,416 $0 −$8,416 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $27,497 $0 −$27,497 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Avalanche 63¢ 0¢ $87,629 $0 −$87,629 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 58¢ 0¢ $53,940 $0 −$53,940 (-100%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 38¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Houston Astros 43¢ 0¢ $16,568 $0 −$16,568 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 51¢ 0¢ $61,200 $0 −$61,200 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 49¢ 0¢ $14,581 $0 −$14,581 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Colorado Rockies 26¢ 0¢ $10,559 $0 −$10,559 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Sabres Sabres 51¢ 0¢ $91,147 $0 −$91,147 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 68¢ 0¢ $136,000 $0 −$136,000 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ 0¢ $44,000 $0 −$44,000 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Colorado Rockies 27¢ 0¢ $668 $0 −$668 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 12 $43,645 −$43,645 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $2,064 −$2,064 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 12 $66,300 −$66,300 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 12 $29,362 −$29,362 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $924 −$924 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $15,898 −$15,898 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 12 $42,299 −$42,299 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $8,416 −$8,416 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Jun 12 $61,200 −$61,200 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $136,000 −$136,000 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $44,000 −$44,000 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $668 −$668 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $714 −$714 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $37,399 −$37,399 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $59,610 −$59,610 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 Jun 12 $1,646 −$1,646 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5,181 −$5,181 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $104,000 −$104,000 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $346 −$346 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $161,999 −$161,999 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $285,537 −$285,537 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $72,596 −$72,596 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $24,065 −$24,065 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Jun 12 $70,800 −$70,800 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $17,080 −$17,080 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $8,153 −$8,153 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $40,615 −$40,615 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $820 −$820 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 12 $3,680 −$3,680 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $93,000 −$93,000 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Jun 12 $35,741 −$35,741 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 12 $74,171 −$74,171 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $22,879 −$22,879 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $2,294 −$2,294 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $21,036 −$21,036 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 12 $237,141 −$237,141 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 12 $11,996 −$11,996 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jun 12 $184,873 −$184,873 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $52,000 −$52,000 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 Jun 12 $497 −$497 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Jun 12 $18,800 −$18,800 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 12 $50,000 −$50,000 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $29,441 −$29,441 -100%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $7,467 −$7,467 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $18,042 −$18,042 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $43,364 −$43,364 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 12 $430 −$430 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$636,444
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 57¢ $51,300 16h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 49¢ $11 32h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $63 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $12 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $12 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $8 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $29 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $429 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $7 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $305 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 34h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $7,302 34h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 49¢ $326 34h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $194 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $157 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $8 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $4 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $1 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $2 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $4 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $1 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $2 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $1 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $8 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $8 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $14 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $40 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $9 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -76.7% -78.9% 12% 12% -85.8%
≤30d 148 -38.3% -44.1% 25% 25% -65.6%
≤90d 148 -38.3% -44.1% 25% 25% -65.6%
all 148 -38.3% -44.1% 25% 25% -65.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover138.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.1% 25% -65.6%
10% -49.5% 25% -68.9%
15% ← realistic here -54.4% 25% -71.9%
20% -58.8% 24% -74.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58,537.88 · official $58,537.88 (match) · 3500 history records