Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc80c…3f10 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$4
other 11% −$9
politics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 30 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 36 +0.7% -8.8% 56% 6% -9.3%
all 40 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage533d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 39¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $36 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $78 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $42 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $36 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $41 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $130 −$7 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $72 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $42 +$3 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $6 +$1 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $43 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $1 $0 +16%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $287 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $316 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $13 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.86 · official $29.52 (match) · 160 history records