Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc80f…5a52 crypto 1093 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$247 (-6%) realized −$247 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%441W / 651L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day68.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$147
14 days−$162
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$484
weather 31% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 -10.0% -18.6% 44% 41% -19.9%
≤30d 597 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 40% -23.2%
≤90d 1092 -13.7% -21.9% 40% 37% -24.6%
all 1092 -13.7% -21.9% 40% 37% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 37% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 34% -31.8%
15% -36.2% 29% -38.4%
20% -42.4% 18% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses441 / 651
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1092 / 1093
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day68.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1092 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 17 $12 −$13 -109%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 17 $8 −$10 -118%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -196%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -196%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -196%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -196%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -196%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -196%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.49 · official $6.78 (match) · 3500 history records