Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc818…cd44 sports 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$197 (+1%) realized +$319 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%61W / 76L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$20
14 days−$518
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$347
crypto 42% +$399
other 5% −$82
tech 0% +$5
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.1% -10.5% 39% 35% -15.4%
≤30d 137 -12.4% -20.7% 45% 36% -8.8%
≤90d 137 -12.4% -20.7% 45% 36% -8.8%
all 137 -12.4% -20.7% 45% 36% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 36% -8.8%
10% -28.3% 28% -17.5%
15% -35.2% 23% -25.5%
20% -41.6% 19% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$37 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized+$319
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses61 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions12
Markets (closed)137 / 153
History coverage26d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? No 45¢ 23¢ $273 $138 −$135 (-49%)
Will Victor Wembanyama be on the cover of NBA 2K27? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+14%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 79¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+10%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +54%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -94%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -36%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$26 +259%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$34 +331%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$19 -92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $46 +$78 +170%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$12 +116%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$5 +22%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$12 +228%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $20 +$15 +76%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY No 51¢ $102 1h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY No 34¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 26h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? SELL No 90¢ $10 26h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY No 58¢ $16 35h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $16 35h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY No 57¢ $7 35h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 44h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY No 69¢ $51 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 2d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 0¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $5 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.85 · official $450.86 (match) · 401 history records