Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc81e…f45b crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day140.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$49
other 19% +$5
sports 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 58% -15.6%
≤30d 38 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 58% -15.6%
≤90d 38 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 58% -15.6%
all 38 -1.3% -10.7% 71% 58% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 58% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 45% -23.6%
15% -27.1% 21% -31.0%
20% -34.2% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day140.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$17 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $18 −$14 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records