Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C8 0xc820…cddf crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+3%) realized +$59 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate60%38W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$73
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$88
other 45% +$126
politics 4% +$29
sports 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +17.3% +6.1% 74% 68% +5.8%
≤30d 24 +1.8% -7.9% 62% 58% -8.5%
≤90d 63 -4.8% -13.8% 60% 56% -7.6%
all 63 -4.8% -13.8% 60% 56% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 56% -7.6%
10% -22.1% 41% -16.4%
15% -29.6% 30% -24.5%
20% -36.5% 21% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses38 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage80d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 +$25 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$7 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$19 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 +$8 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 12 $40 +$7 +18%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $90 +$32 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 12 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 12 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 12 $14 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 12 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 12 $78 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 12 $113 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 12 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 12 $135 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 12 $15 −$12 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 12 $100 +$13 +14%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $90 +$39 +44%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 08 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 08 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 08 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 08 $25 +$9 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $17 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.03 · official $114.04 (match) · 163 history records