Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc820…49de sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,135 (+12%) realized +$1,135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$683per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,064
other 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +27.4% +15.2% 71% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 14 +27.4% +15.2% 71% 50% +0.7%
≤90d 14 +27.4% +15.2% 71% 50% +0.7%
all 14 +27.4% +15.2% 71% 50% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.2% 50% +0.7%
10% +4.2% 21% -8.9%
15% ← realistic here -5.9% 21% -17.7%
20% -15.1% 14% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$58 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.68 per $1 lost it wins $5.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$683
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $1,989 +$353 +18%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $1,003 +$119 +12%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $15 +$52 +336%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $852 −$140 -16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$2 -3%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $2,310 +$378 +16%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $604 +$39 +6%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$73 +72%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $601 +$44 +7%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $892 +$72 +8%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $202 +$85 +42%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) Jun 25 $703 +$102 +14%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $202 −$60 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,342 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Türkiye 100¢ $1,122 1h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 94¢ $67 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 97¢ $350 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $350 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 63¢ $363 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 78¢ $483 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $502 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 49¢ $49 3h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 89¢ $1,003 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $1,004 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $502 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,688 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $51 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 83¢ $644 4h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 5h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 81¢ $302 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1,005 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1,003 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $604 6h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $174 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $645 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $964 7h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $286 7h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $805 7h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 53¢ $141 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 8h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 74¢ $202 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $601 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records