Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C8 0xc821…8123 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%4W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$26
other 24% −$19
world 20% −$7
politics 10% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 5 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -37.4%
≤90d 17 -17.8% -25.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -17.8% -25.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -32.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -39.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -45.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$14 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses4 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage74d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 23 $86 −$3 -4%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $58 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 12 $62 −$11 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $3 $0 -4%
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) May 23 $551 +$34 +6%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? May 22 $550 $0 +0%
Spread: FC København (-2.5) May 22 $512 +$43 +8%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? May 21 $510 −$1 -0%
Pyramids FC vs. Smouha SC: O/U 4.5 May 21 $472 +$40 +8%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? May 20 $479 −$6 -1%
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-2.5) May 20 $446 +$33 +7%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? May 18 $450 −$3 -1%
Spread: Torino FC (-1.5) Apr 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Apr 26 $25 −$1 -3%
Spread: Club León FC (-2.5) Apr 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $303 −$7 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $42 2m
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $40 2m
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $44 1h
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL Yes $30 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL Yes $28 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes $30 3h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY Yes $28 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY struggletony $35 11d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) BUY struggletony $37 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $26 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $24 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $30 11d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $32 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $3 28d
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) BUY Urawa Red Diamonds 94¢ $551 32d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $550 32d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $550 32d
Spread: FC København (-2.5) BUY Brøndby IF 92¢ $512 33d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL No 95¢ $509 33d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY No 95¢ $510 33d
Pyramids FC vs. Smouha SC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $472 34d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $474 34d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $479 34d
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-2.5) BUY FC UTA Arad 93¢ $446 36d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 36d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $438 36d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $450 36d
Spread: Torino FC (-1.5) BUY Torino FC $10 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records