Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc822…4df9 world 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$2
other 20% −$2
politics 14% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 14 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -5.8% -14.8% 31% 0% -9.8%
all 59 -2.6% -11.9% 24% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -9.9%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage279d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $37 +$2 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $36 −$3 -9%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $80 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $41 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $41 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $2 $0 -21%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 01 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 +15%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Adelita Grijalva win AZ-07 by between 35% and 40%? Sep 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 29 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $4 $0 -13%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 17 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $23 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $9 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $30 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $19 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $36 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $4 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $31 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $36 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $35 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $36 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $43 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $43 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.66 · official $19.66 (match) · 186 history records