Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc823…c1b9 crypto 589 markets active 1d ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (253 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10,129 (+18%) realized +$10,129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate49%392W / 412L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day253.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,419
other 1% −$50
sports 1% +$1
world 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (253 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 704 -28.6% -35.4% 45% 28% -26.3%
≤30d 804 -25.0% -32.1% 49% 29% -25.0%
≤90d 804 -25.0% -32.1% 49% 29% -25.0%
all 804 -25.0% -32.1% 49% 29% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover253.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.1% 29% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -38.6% 20% -32.2%
15% -44.5% 14% -38.7%
20% -50.0% 10% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$48 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses392 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)804 / 589
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$94
Trades / day253.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 804 Trades
no open positions (282 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $231 −$231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $57 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $69 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $43 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $37 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records