Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C8 0xc824…67dc other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1
world 42% $0
politics 10% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.0% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -0.0% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 43 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage393d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $38 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $19 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 07 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will FlyQuest win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 06 $2 $0 +17%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 06 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $7 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $31 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $41 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $22 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 82¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $20 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $25 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $19 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $14 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records