Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc826…fcb3 sports 435 markets active 3h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,720 (+4%) realized +$1,738 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%185W / 237L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$345est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$768now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$251
7 days−$335
14 days−$554
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$1,336
other 43% +$159
tech 3% −$124
crypto 3% −$64
economics 2% −$140
politics 1% −$4
world 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -6.7% -15.6% 31% 16% -12.2%
≤30d 119 +2.0% -7.7% 34% 25% -12.2%
≤90d 422 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 39% -6.9%
all 422 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 39% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 39% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 36% -15.8%
15% -25.3% 29% -23.9%
20% -32.6% 24% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$31 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$768
Realized+$1,738
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses185 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$345
Open positions13
Markets (closed)422 / 435
History coverage71d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $481 $473 −$8 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $67 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 8¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $996 +$133 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $981 +$17 +2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $432 −$38 -9%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $175 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $276 −$20 -7%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $544 −$376 -69%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $48 −$3 -7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 +$128 +120%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $886 −$38 -4%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 −$5 -8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Jun 14 $896 −$39 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $77 −$11 -14%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$5 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $352 +$143 +41%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $133 +$53 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $246 +$70 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $134 −$5 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $405 −$211 -52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $150 −$6 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 12 $131 +$68 +52%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $718 +$78 +11%
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? Jun 11 $149 −$12 -8%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $423 −$9 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $769 −$96 -12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $423 −$16 -4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $350 −$25 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $23 $0 +1%
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 11 $169 −$12 -7%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 11 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,246 −$58 -5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $29 −$4 -14%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 09 $97 −$7 -8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 09 $27 −$12 -47%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $14 −$1 -9%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 08 $105 −$6 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $12 −$3 -28%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $206 −$10 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $172 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 4h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 4h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $95 6h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $64 6h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $170 7h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 7h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 7h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 7h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 7h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $175 7h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $41 7h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $169 7h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $22 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 16h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $11 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $16 19h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 19h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $31 19h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $30 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 20h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 20h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 20h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 20h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 20h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $34 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $767.94 · official $767.97 (match) · 1779 history records