Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc827…b06f crypto 602 markets active 0h ago coverage 171d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 170d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$463 (-4%) realized −$483 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%282W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days−$240
14 days−$240
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$365
sports 15% −$169
other 0% −$1
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -5.1% -14.2% 49% 41% -20.9%
≤30d 80 -5.1% -14.2% 49% 41% -20.9%
≤90d 80 -5.1% -14.2% 49% 41% -20.9%
all 601 -7.1% -15.9% 47% 29% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 29% -13.8%
10% -24.0% 22% -22.1%
15% -31.3% 17% -29.6%
20% -38.1% 13% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$483
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses282 / 319
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)601 / 602
History coverage171d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 601 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 0¢ 44¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$16 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$22 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $48 +$23 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $61 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $56 −$20 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$32 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$26 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$34 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$25 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $107 −$15 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$24 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $77 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +18%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.23 · official $30.23 · 3500 history records