Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc82d…7a78 sports 740 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,389 (+9%) realized +$7,424 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate99%727W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$64
14 days+$37
30 days+$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$6,944
other 24% +$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -0.8% -10.2% 99% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 279 +2.4% -7.3% 99% 2% -8.5%
≤90d 737 +14.6% +3.7% 99% 3% -3.9%
all 737 +14.6% +3.7% 99% 3% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 3% -3.9%
10% -6.2% 2% -13.1%
15% -15.3% 2% -21.5%
20% -23.6% 2% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×68.73 per $1 lost it wins $68.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$7,424
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses727 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)737 / 740
History coverage74d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9daplug vs QUINTESSÊNCIA - Map 1 Winner QUINTESSÊNCIA 99¢ 50¢ $33 $16 −$16 (-49%)
Counter-Strike: 9daplug vs QUINTESSÊNCIA - Map 2 Winner QUINTESSÊNCIA 99¢ 50¢ $33 $16 −$16 (-49%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 99¢ 50¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Krawietz/Puetz (-1.5) vs Galloway/Peers (+1.5) Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers Jun 17 $178 $0 +0%
Kyle Higashioka: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Quan vs. Sels: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
TJ Rumfield: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Carson Kelly: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Quan vs Sels Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Quan vs. Sels: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Kyle Higashioka: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Carson Kelly: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Quan vs. Sels: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $92 $0 +0%
Parma (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Goldhoff/Harper Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Isaro/Poonacha vs Goldhoff/Harper Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Isaro/Poonacha vs Goldhoff/Harper Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Diamonds - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Dia Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Donovan Walton: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Oswald Peraza: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Zach Neto: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dod Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
ITF Women Blois: Completed Match: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $779 +$1 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Muchova/Williams vs Olmos/Routliffe Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Muchova/Williams vs Olmos/Routliffe Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Gille/Verbeek (-1.5) vs Gill/Harris (+1.5) Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $4,439 +$52 +1%
Set Handicap: Djuric (-1.5) vs Brown (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Fernandez/Siegemund vs Panova/Sch Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Gagliardo (-1.5) vs Maksimovic (+1.5) Jun 15 $128 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Dias/Silva (-1.5) vs Pokorny/Sachko (+1.5) Jun 15 $164 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Nugroho (-1.5) vs Zhiyenbayeva (+1.5) Jun 11 $164 $0 +0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $12 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Ryan O'Hearn: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Tyler Stephenson: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $51 +$1 +2%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 11 $64 $0 +0%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $78 $0 +0%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) Jun 11 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Krawietz/Puetz (-1.5) vs Galloway/Peers (+1.5) BUY Galloway/Peers 100¢ $78 1h
Set 2 Winner: Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers BUY Galloway/Peers 100¢ $78 1h
Set 1 Winner: Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers BUY Galloway/Peers 100¢ $178 1h
Parma (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Goldhoff/Harper BUY Isaro/Poonacha 100¢ $78 1h
Set 2 Winner: Isaro/Poonacha vs Goldhoff/Harper BUY Goldhoff/Harper 100¢ $78 1h
Set 1 Winner: Isaro/Poonacha vs Goldhoff/Harper BUY Isaro/Poonacha 100¢ $78 1h
Kyle Higashioka: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $28 10h
Kyle Higashioka: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $78 10h
Carson Kelly: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $78 10h
Carson Kelly: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $78 10h
TJ Rumfield: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $78 10h
Quan vs. Sels: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $78 10h
Quan vs. Sels: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $78 10h
Quan vs. Sels: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $92 10h
Set 2 Winner: Quan vs Sels BUY Quan 100¢ $78 10h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dod BUY No 100¢ $78 11h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Dia BUY No 100¢ $78 11h
Donovan Walton: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $78 11h
Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $78 11h
Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $78 11h
Oswald Peraza: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $78 11h
Zach Neto: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $78 11h
Counter-Strike: BakS eSports vs Diamonds - Map 2 Winner BUY Diamonds 90¢ $5 15h
ITF Women Blois: Completed Match: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Yes 100¢ $78 22h
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia BUY Julia Riera 100¢ $779 22h
Set 2 Winner: Muchova/Williams vs Olmos/Routliffe BUY Olmos/Routliffe 100¢ $64 23h
Set 1 Winner: Muchova/Williams vs Olmos/Routliffe BUY Olmos/Routliffe 100¢ $78 23h
Set Handicap: Gille/Verbeek (-1.5) vs Gill/Harris (+1.5) BUY Gill/Harris 100¢ $150 23h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Toronto Marlies 99¢ $4,439 2d
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Fernandez/Siegemund vs Panova/Sch BUY Yes 99¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.50 · official $603.50 (match) · 1620 history records