Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc82d…5fd3 other 377 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$405 (-4%) realized −$407 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%214W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$327
sports 13% −$47
tech 3% −$23
world 1% −$17
finance 1% −$4
politics 1% +$13
crypto 0% −$16
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +8.3% -2.0% 61% 57% -4.6%
≤30d 39 +19.2% +7.9% 72% 67% -14.3%
≤90d 139 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 53% -20.3%
all 365 -4.3% -13.4% 59% 51% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 51% -13.3%
10% -21.7% 45% -21.6%
15% -29.3% 36% -29.2%
20% -36.2% 27% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$407
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses214 / 151
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)365 / 377
History coverage233d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 57¢ 61¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$6 +29%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? May 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? May 25 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 25 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 18 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$13 +62%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 14m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 15m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 15m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 15m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 19d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 19d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.71 · official $241.71 (match) · 746 history records