Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc82f…66a7 sports 672 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,189 (-3%) realized −$7,331 · open +$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%219W / 415L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$741est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$9,792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 161d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$16,752
sports 32% −$2,057
world 18% −$199
culture 3% −$6,643
economics 2% −$387
politics 2% −$3,036
crypto 1% −$267
tech 0% −$225
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+65.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 +74.8% +58.2% 42% 34% -30.0%
≤30d 370 +73.5% +57.0% 40% 32% -28.3%
≤90d 384 +68.5% +52.4% 40% 31% -25.6%
all 612 +82.8% +65.4% 32% 26% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.4% 26% -28.6%
10% +49.6% 22% -35.4%
15% +35.1% 19% -41.6%
20% +21.9% 16% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +35% → late +125% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$97 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$9,792
Realized−$7,331
Unrealized+$142
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses219 / 415
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$741
Open positions30
Markets (closed)634 / 672
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$412
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 634 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 97¢ $4,977 $8,492 +$3,515 (+71%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 38¢ 8¢ $4,285 $952 −$3,333 (-78%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $254 $266 +$12 (+5%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 35¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 44¢ 69¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+58%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 46¢ 60¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-63%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-74%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+64%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Theo James announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
James Collier announced as next James Bond? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 322 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Am I Okay? (Megan Moroney) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Jun 25 $0 $0 -113%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -1096%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Franz Wagner win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 25 $0 $0 -258%
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 25 $0 $0 -18%
Will Lamar Jackson win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Geno Smith win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Virgin (Lorde) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Aw Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ja'Marr Chase win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Azizam (Ed Sheeran) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMM Jun 25 $0 $0 -113%
Will Megan Moroney win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Award Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Portrait (Samara Joy) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GR Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wesley So win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Jun 25 $0 $0 —%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -147%
Will annual inflation increase by less than 24% in December? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 25 $0 $0 +226%
Will Feyenoord win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MK.gee win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -102%
Will The Right Person Will Stay (Lana Del Rey) win Album of the Year a Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tyreek Hill win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Le Havre win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Jun 25 $0 $0 —%
Will Michael Porter Jr. lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA Jun 25 $0 +$2 +339850%
Will Harris English win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joana Amaral Dias win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 25 $0 +$4 +18110%
Will Celtic win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 25 $0 +$4 +3347%
Will Brentford finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 25 $0 $0 —%
Will Ashton Jeanty win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA seas Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ella Langley win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lamar Jackson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -125%
Will Sturm Graz win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ordinary (Alex Warren) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GR Jun 25 $0 $0 -113%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sleep Token win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA sea Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Casey Jarvis win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Naoyuki Kataoka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Jun 25 $0 +$2 +284850%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 51¢ $265 10m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY 89¢ $886 20m
Spread: France (-3.5) AND Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) AND Spread: Aust BUY 41¢ $69 28m
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 19¢ $0 46m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 21¢ $26 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 49¢ $3 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 31¢ $18 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will South Africa win on BUY 35¢ $2 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2 BUY 91¢ $120 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY 54¢ $541 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 31¢ $8 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 67¢ $16 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2 BUY 83¢ $48 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 67¢ $27 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score AND Will Korea Republic win on BUY 70¢ $163 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3 BUY 55¢ $25 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0 BUY 26¢ $14 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Will South Africa vs. Kor BUY 75¢ $299 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score AND Will Korea Republic win on BUY 70¢ $348 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 67¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 65¢ $653 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3 BUY 79¢ $183 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY 54¢ $36 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U BUY 12¢ $1 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 58¢ $27 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1 BUY 77¢ $9 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1 BUY 77¢ $4 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 54¢ $542 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 53¢ $6 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Czechia vs. M BUY 75¢ $303 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,791.87 · official $20,309.01 · 3500 history records