Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc834…f013 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$185 (-12%) realized −$167 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$253
world 1% −$16
other 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -30.1% -36.7% 44% 33% -27.5%
≤30d 36 -30.1% -36.7% 44% 33% -27.5%
≤90d 36 -30.1% -36.7% 44% 33% -27.5%
all 36 -30.1% -36.7% 44% 33% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 33% -27.5%
10% -42.8% 25% -34.4%
15% -48.3% 22% -40.7%
20% -53.4% 11% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$29 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage7d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Down 50¢ 47¢ $128 $120 −$9 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$32 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$142 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$22 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $133 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $144 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.83 · official $126.19 · 109 history records